Pyramid, kite, or house

What the pyramid gave us for free

For generations, junior people learned by doing. They built the model, reviewed the documents, and wrote the first draft. That work produced output for the business and something harder to measure: experience. The organization got today's output and tomorrow's talent from the same work, and nobody had to design it.

AI is now taking on that routine work. You can reduce a graduate intake this year and improve your cost base next year. You may not see the other side of that decision until 2030, when you need experienced people with the judgment to lead and find there aren't enough coming through.

The opportunity is not to preserve the old apprenticeship. It's to build a better one.

Two shapes, two bets

The pyramid is no longer a default. Two shapes are replacing it, and each is a different bet on the organization you want to build.

• The kite. Shrink the junior layer, capture the efficiency now, and rely on a larger population of experienced people to carry the work. The economic case is strong, and in some settings it's the right design.
• The house. Reduce routine work, then deliberately redesign the talent pipeline so AI moves people into judgment and higher-value work sooner. It costs more this year and asks more of the middle of the organization.

3–6 years between cutting the junior layer and feeling it in the succession pipeline.

What sets thoughtful organizations apart

Neither shape is free, and neither is automatically right. The kite bets that the expertise you need will be available when you need it. The house bets that the productivity AI creates can be reinvested in a faster path to expertise. Which fits depends on your market, your margin, and how firm-specific your expertise is.

What separates the organizations that get this right is not the shape they choose. It's that they choose on purpose, with someone accountable for the question, rather than making the bet without noticing they made it.

What's inside

This guide helps leadership teams work through the decision together. You'll find:

• How the pyramid built expertise as a by-product of everyday work
• Why law is the textbook case, with adoption data from the Thomson Reuters Institute
• Evidence from accounting and across US firms on how junior hiring is already shifting
• When the kite is sound design, and the question it has to answer
• How the house works in practice, including a working assumption of 15 to 25% of mid-level time for coaching, feedback, and exposure
• What McKinsey's changing headcount and way of working show about the house in action

Get the full guide

Download the whitepaper to see how both shapes play out, and what it takes to keep the people who know how to run what you've built.

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