Choosing the next CEO: why start now?

At the ten-year mark of his tenure as CEO, David thought he should no longer postpone naming potential successors, though the board said it would be happy if he stayed on for several more years.
He chose two candidates: the CFO and the head of the largest commercial business. However, that is where the succession planning ended. There was no formal process by which to evaluate, select and develop the candidates. The ensuing year brought chaos.
The two selected executives formed camps of loyal followers and began undermining one another at every turn. They appeared to the CEO to be engaged in collegial, healthy competition. The reality nearly tore the company apart. The dueling turned bitter, prompted poor decisions, and inspired bad behavior down through the organization, culminating in a potentially fraudulent practice by one candidate. Both were dismissed. The CEO stayed three more years as the board hired a search firm, vetted candidates, chose a president, and prepared to transition the next chief executive.
The danger of failing to plan
While this is an extreme example of failing to plan, many organizations can attest to the bitter internal struggles, organizational disruption, prolonged uncertainty, and negative impact of not having an orderly succession plan.
It does not require complex analysis to understand why many don’t do this. A board typically has confidence in its CEO and gets comfortable with who they have at the helm. They are focused on other fiduciary duties and are often satisfied seeing other senior leaders in the boardroom on a limited basis. Months turn into years. Complacency ensues.
And there is the CEO. Who among us wants to contemplate our own “mortality” in a job? For CEOs, this may be the last job before retirement. As they focus on the here and now, postponing the process may not feel as risky as it is.
Why is it important to start planning now? The average tenure of CEOs has plummeted, from 8.5 years in 2003, down to 3.7 years now. This alone is reason for every board and CEO to begin within three to five years of the anticipated transition. Although it might sound absurd, one implication of this is that new CEOs should start thinking about their own successor during their own first 90 days.
Embracing the both/and mindset
The answer to overcoming complacency is to adopt a “both-and” mindset. The board and the organization can support the CEO AND plan ahead. An orderly process not only secures your company’s long-term success and stability; it is one of the last acts of a CEO to create a well-paved path to future success, and a powerful, positive legacy.
Most experts believe it is best to start at least 3 to 5 years in advance. If you take a “both-and” approach, you are instituting a rigorous program that includes identifying, assessing, and preparing top internal candidates for the role. You get behind the CEO today while developing the best internal candidates for the future. You can always go to an external search closer to the decision time, if warranted.
The urge to anoint a successor
It is tempting for CEOs to select one or two “obvious” CEO candidates. However, we all have conscious and unconscious biases. Starting with a broad search and resisting the urge to anoint a successor, is a far better guarantee of success. The larger pool and rigorous selection and development process not only avoids the negative dynamics of being seen as playing favorites; you are less likely to miss other top-notch candidates, particularly those with a different perspective, or cast in a different mold from the current leader.
Boards can fuel the tendency to let a CEO anoint a successor. They may rely on the CEO to determine who should make presentations to the board. They may be guided almost exclusively in their conversations by the CEO’s view of the candidates. Boards should encourage the CEO and CHRO to embrace a transparent robust process of creating a profile of the next chief executive well in advance, assess the candidates, coach them, and prepare them with high value experiences.
Start with a CEO profile
The beginning of a rigorous succession process is to build a CEO Profile. What does the organization need in its next CEO, or, for that matter, any C-Suite leader? The CEO Profile can be developed collaboratively with the help of experts in an objective process. External expertise will help you to consider all the factors of success including the strategic vision and market dynamics that a new chief executive will face.
Even if the company is doing well, “more of the same” may not deliver on quantum growth or a competitive shift that can be a game-changer. The Profile provides flexibility to move in a new direction. One board we advised took the opportunity to radically rethink CEO selection as the company reached a pivot point, selecting a leader particularly well qualified to help the company change course.
Data and insights: an objective view
Once you have a well-developed CEO Profile the next step is to gather data, assess, and share these with potential candidates as part of their development plan. The organization and the leaders learn about their strengths and gaps and have the motivation and time to develop the capabilities they need most to do the job. Even your best candidates will not have it all. By providing data and insights and combining that with coaching, feedback, and new experiences, you can establish a unique program to prepare each candidate for the top job.
1. Assessment data
Assessment is an objective way to appreciate what leadership qualities, skills and experiences each candidate has now, and use the data to inform their development. What gets a leader here may not help them to ascend to the chief executive role.
A 360 assessment provides an objective evaluation about how the leader is showing up to others. One CEO candidate we assessed with the Bates ExPITM was exceptionally skilled at the technical side of the business, but needed to learn to inspire, energize, and align others to drive results. He embraced this data because he was able to tackle the right things to become a more well-rounded candidate. There are many types of assessments appropriate to the development phase of CEO succession. The key is to assess against your profile and get a detailed perspective.
2. Performance data
The second set of data to review and use in development is the candidate’s performance in recent roles. What results have they achieved? Savvy organizations create a sophisticated overview of performance by evaluating both the results achieved, and how the leader achieved them. Leaders that break the rules just to get bottom line performance don’t belong in a CEO succession plan.
In addition to business performance data, you can look at other data that already exists. Employee engagement surveys specific to that leader’s organization can be tracked over time for a historic view. Customer surveys, vendor surveys and interviews with direct reports can round out the picture of how the leader achieves results. As a coach works with the candidate, this data should factor into the development plan.
3. Career experiences
This third stream of data and development looks at a candidate’s ability to operate outside their comfort zone leading cross-functional, high impact initiatives. One company asked a sales leader with a take-no-prisoners approach to generating revenue to lead a new acquisition. She had to flex her approach and lead the team to collaborate, build agreements, and align. She was successful. Her CEO endorsed her candidacy, as the company planned to grow by acquisition in the future.
Bringing CEO candidates into adjacent or very different roles with new requirements gives them another view of the business, and tests untapped capabilities. Appointing leaders to be the executive sponsor or leader of a major transformation or change initiative is a powerful test. You want to see candidates deliver on a variety of fronts, such as enterprise technology implementation, or driving change in a go-to-market strategy or operating across multiple functions. Putting leaders in these critical roles develops their capabilities and gives you confidence they are ready.
In summary: the succession checklist
A robust succession management system is something you can always be doing, to support an ongoing pipeline to the C-suite. If this is not in place in your company, now is the time to get it right for later.
- Start early and initiate a rigorous process
- Resist the urge to anoint a candidate like you
- Provide the candidates with data and insights for strategic development
- Prioritize their development with coaching and stretch experiences
- Think of succession as a virtuous cycle that makes your organization healthy and strong
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Last night I started reading a book by Irvin Yalom, a psychiatrist who has written several novels that I’ve loved. But right now I’m reading something different—a book of short lessons he’s learned from many years of working with patients.
Early in his career, Yalom was inspired by something he read. The gist of it was that all people have a natural tendency to want to grow and become fulfilled—just an acorn will grow up to become an oak—as long as there are no obstacles in the way. So the job of the psychotherapist was to eliminate the obstacles to growth.
This was a eureka moment for Yalom. At the time, he was treating a young widow. Suffering through grief for a long while, she wanted help because she had a “failed heart”—an inability ever to love again.
Yalom had felt overwhelmed. How could he possibly change someone’s inability to love? But now he looked at it differently. He could dedicate himself to identifying and eliminating the obstacles that kept her from loving.
So they worked on that—her feelings of disloyalty to her late husband, her sense that she was somehow responsible for his death, and the fear of loss that falling in love again would mean. Eventually they eliminated all of the obstacles. Then her natural ability to love—and grow—returned. She remarried.
Reading this story made me think of the responsibility of leaders toward the people they need to develop—and for the growth and learning that leaders themselves require to be the best that they can be.
Many leadership development challenges seem overwhelming—even impossible. The leaders that we coach usually have a list of areas where they want to get better, but how? How do you “build better relationships with your peers and direct reports”? How are you supposed to “get out of the weeds and demonstrate enterprise-wide thinking” or “build executive presence”? All of these goals are as abstract as they are huge.
So the best approach is to not focus on the huge and fuzzy goal. What we try to do is to break these goals down into concrete actions through working on real-time business problems. To put it simply, though, we do just as Yalom does: We identify the obstacles and work toward knocking them off, one at a time.
Leadership development is not usually a quick fix. You’re not going to develop executive presence through a half-day workshop or a one-time meeting. If you’re interested in meaningful, lasting growth—whether for yourself or for those who work for you—it’s a commitment.
But don’t ever forget that we’re all capable of growth throughout life and our careers. The trick is to find the right coach or mentor who will guide you through that obstacle course.

In my work as an executive coach, I meet at least once a month with each of my coaching clients.
I often talk to them on the phone and exchange emails with them as we work on their real-time business challenges. So, what happens in those conversations? Recurring themes start to come up. I find that many leaders have a “talk track” of words and phrases that they use all the time—without always being aware of the impact. For better or worse, this talk track ends up becoming part of their executive presence and their brand as a leader.
One of my clients had a talk track for many years that led to a reputation for negativity. In one meeting alone, I noticed that he had described about ten different work experiences as “nightmares.” Strong word! So we talked about this talk track. And the next time I heard him lapse into that way of talking, I decided to delve into it. “What I just heard from you was an example of that ‘talk track’ we’ve talked about,” I said. “So let’s talk about this. You say it was a ‘nightmare.’ Okay—why do you call it a nightmare?”
The upshot was that he had made a sales presentation but didn’t get the deal. I said, “Let’s use accurate language to describe the situation.” Was it a nightmare? No. Maybe it was a disappointment. Maybe he could have said, “Unfortunately, we didn’t get the deal” or “They decided to go with another vendor” and state why, objectively. My goal was to get him to stop “catastrophizing” when something didn’t work out.
This leader didn’t want to be defined by that negative “talk track” anymore. So I told him that the only way to do that is to turn up the volume on a very different talk track—one that captures the brand and presence that you want to project.
I’ve had clients who always talked about how difficult or challenging or complex things seemed to them. You’ve probably had a boss or colleague with any number of talk-track themes:
- “I’m so exhausted/overwhelmed/unhappy/unappreciated….”
- “Everyone here is useless/stupid/incompetent….”
- “It’s such a difficult environment/project/client/travel schedule…”
- “That will never work/We won’t get that deal/It’s a dumb idea/What were they thinking?”
Often people aren’t even aware of how much they harp on a conversational theme and how negatively this lack of executive presence is affecting their professional brand. So what can you do to make sure your talk track is working for you and not against you as a leader? Take these four steps:
1. Identify your talk-track themes.
What are the words and phrases that you find yourself constantly using in conversations at work? Write down the things you seem to say almost every day—or think about what themes come up all the time for you in conversation at work or elsewhere.
2. Consider the impact of your talk track.
As a leader, your words carry more weight than others. You’re setting the tone for your team or division or organization. Whether that tone is absurdly optimistic, cynical, critical, upbeat, energized, or overly emotional, it’s going to be the model for others. Make sure that your talk track is consistent with the values and behaviors you want to drive.
3. Challenge the reality of your talk track.
How accurate is your talk track? Do you have a natural tendency to see the part of the glass that’s empty? How do you respond to setbacks? Do you gloss over the pain? Do you make a mountain out of a molehill? It’s crucial for leaders to be balanced, objective, and real about what’s happening. Your language choices need to reflect that.
4. Consider what you could say differently.
It’s easy to lapse into your talk track. When you catch yourself saying the same old things, try to catch yourself as if an alarm was going off. Can you find another way to say it—something that’s consistent with the brand and presence you want to project.
Don’t get me wrong. Leaders do need to be “real” about challenges and setbacks, and a somber tone may be appropriate and even helpful at times. The goal is to become more aware of your talk track and what it’s doing for you and others. As a leader, people take their cues from you. Before you know it, your talk track can dominate or drive the culture.
Changing your talk track is a challenge. Our ways of talking and viewing the world are pretty ingrained through several decades of life experiences. But change is also very possible. Pump up the volume on a more positive talk track for the holidays, and your presence will be viewed as a gift.

A while back, I heard an anecdote on the radio about cellist Yo-Yo Ma, and it really struck me. Surprisingly, Ma said that once of his biggest inspirations was chef, author, and television personality Julia Child.
Huh?! Well, it turns out that thinking about Julia Child helped him get in the right mindset before a performance. He would think about watching her on television, making a roast chicken that looked beautiful—only to have it fall off the plate and onto the floor. Did she flip out? No, she never stopped smiling. She just acknowledged what happened and went on with the show.
Reflecting on this, Ma realized that the best mindset he could have as a performer was to ensure that his audience was having a good experience—rather than worrying about being perfect. Speaking to the St. Louis Post Dispatch last October, he said, “The idea of performing is hosting. It’s like you’re giving a party. You invite people to come to a place and enjoy something special; basically, they’re subject to whatever you dish out. You want them to have a great time, they want to have a great time, and what are you doing to facilitate that?”
In a Malcolm Gladwell article that I read years ago, Yo-Yo Ma also admitted that he used to strive for perfection in performance. When he was 17, he practiced a Brahms sonata for a year with technical perfection in mind. So what happened when he did that? “In the middle of the performance I thought, I’m bored. It would have been nothing for me to get up from the stage and walk away. That’s when I decided I would always opt for expression over perfection.
”There is a valuable lesson here for executive presentations. In my experience, many leaders worry too much about precision when they present. Aiming for total accuracy, it’s easy to end up with text-heavy PowerPoint slides—and far too many of them. And once you have a ton of bullets on a slide, you usually feel compelled to read them all. At best, slides still tend to distract the audience’s energy away from you—and the presentation is really all about you, not your visuals.
Think about it: What would you rather be able to say at the end of your presentation?
- I covered every point perfectly and spoke without a single stumble.
- I connected deeply with the audience, and I could sense that they were completely engaged with my presentation.
It’s a no-brainer, isn’t it? If you’re able to really connect with your audience’s questions, concerns, and needs, they won’t even notice if the imperfections that jump out to you as the expert.
Of course, there’s a catch here. Connection trumps precision… but the more you master your topic through preparation and practice, the more you’re freed up to focus on connecting with the audience. When you don’t have to work to remember your key points and transitions, you can concentrate more on your eye contact, gestures, and reading the room.
So give some thought to drawing some inspiration from Julia Child, just as Yo-Yo Ma does as a concert performer. When you’re giving a speech, you’re the host, and your job is to set the tone and make sure that everyone has a good experience.
That’s a recipe for a successful presentation.
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In 2012, 74% of SaaS account executives hit quota. Today, it's just 48%.
It's tempting to chalk that up to a software problem. But the pattern is broader. Alexander Group found that just 49% of core sellers across nine industries hit or exceeded quota in 2023.
But here's the kicker: the average seller in that study still reached 89% of target.
Across industries and benchmarks, attainment has been drifting down, but this isn't a story about a handful of great sellers carrying the number while everyone else is falling dramatically behind. The typical seller is getting close to quota.
Sellers aren't suddenly incapable of selling, the context around selling has changed.
Buyers still need sellers… they just need them differently
1. Seller's aren't guiding a single buyer anymore
B2B deals now involve six to 10 stakeholders, and enterprise purchases can involve 17 or more. About 77% of buyers describe their last purchase as complex or difficult.
The seller's job is increasingly to help a group reach a decision, not simply help one person make one.
2. The seller's information advantage is shrinking
The seller's information advantage is shrinking
Buyers now use about 10 interaction channels during a purchase, roughly twice as many as in 2016. AI is accelerating that shift, giving buyers more ways to research, compare and pressure-test options before they ever engage a seller.
The value of simply knowing more than the buyer is disappearing.
3. Buyers can avoid seller friction for longer
About two-thirds of B2B buyers prefer a rep-free buying experience. It's easier than ever to research a category, build a shortlist and develop a point of view without talking to sales.
That means sellers have to earn their way into the conversation by adding value, not just showing up.
4. Sellers are becoming sense-makers
Buyers aren't necessarily struggling to find information. They're struggling to determine what to trust, what matters and what to do with it. In fact, 69% say they turn to sales reps to validate AI-generated insights.
Which brings us to the kickoff
All of this has big implications for the one moment each year when we bring the entire commercial organization together to prepare for the year ahead.
The good news? You don't need to scrap the kickoff, you just need to redesign it.
That's work we do with clients all the time, across sales kickoffs and other high-stakes moments where strategy needs to become action.
And, in the spirit of not gatekeeping the good stuff, here are three things every kickoff designed to change behavior needs:
Before
Start with the change, not the agenda
This is where many sales kickoffs go wrong. They start with the event: strategy update, product roadmap, messaging, breakouts, keynote. The agenda becomes the organizing principle.
Flip it.
Start with the behavior you need to change, then design the kickoff around it.
That means thinking beyond the room itself. What needs to happen before people arrive? What do they need to experience and practice during the event? And what needs to happen after they get back to work?
Find the real constraint
Most revenue leaders have a hypothesis about what's holding their teams back. Few have enough data to know.
We ran a readiness diagnostic for a financial services client preparing for an AI leadership event. The leadership team came in expecting the biggest barrier to be skepticism: Would sellers actually believe AI could help them sell differently?
They were wrong.
Sellers and leaders already believed in the value of AI. The real gap was much more practical: confidence and ability. People understood the promise but weren't yet sure how to use it in their day-to-day work or bring it into a client conversation.
That changed the intervention completely. Instead of spending the event convincing people that AI mattered, we could spend the time helping them actually use it.
That's what a good diagnostic buys you: permission to change the plan.
A useful diagnostic doesn't need to be complicated. Ours can take 15 to 20 minutes per person and, when deployed across the full population, give leaders a ranked view of the constraints by region, function or level.
It also gives you a baseline for the behavior you're trying to change. Without a clear starting point, there's no way to know whether the kickoff actually moved the needle.
Get leaders ready before the room
Leader preparation shouldn't be a briefing the night before. If leaders aren't aligned on the change, the room won't be either.
Before the wider team arrives, leaders need to understand the data, the capability gap and, most importantly, what they need to do differently to close it.
The strongest version we've run gives leaders a dedicated session ahead of the main event. They arrive aligned on what needs to change, why it matters and how they'll reinforce it with their teams.
The test: Can every leader explain what their team needs to change, how kickoff will help and what they'll do differently afterward?
If not, you're asking the organization to change before its leaders are ready to lead the change.
During
Get people working, not watching
Most events fail for a pretty unglamorous reason: People sit and watch.
If you want behavior change, the room needs to feel more like the work and less like a conference.
A simple experiential architecture works:
- Start with the real work. Put people into a live or simulated situation before explaining the framework.
- Let them see the gap. Pause and reflect before introducing the solution. Let the insight come from the room.
- Give them something to try. Introduce the model, tool or methodology when people have a reason to use it.
- Practice before they leave. Don't assume understanding will translate into behavior. Let people try the new behavior while they're still in the room.
Skip the practice and you have awareness. Practice it and you have a shot at behavior change.
Put your leaders to work too
Leaders should facilitate, participate, join teams at the tables and model the behaviors they're asking others to adopt.
If executives are on stage for 20 minutes and gone by lunch, you've designed a broadcast.
People notice the gap between what leaders say matters and what they actually spend their time doing.
The test: Did leaders do the same work they're asking their teams to do?
After
Build reinforcement into the work
This is where a lot of the investment quietly disappears.
Managers today are carrying more people and more work than ever before. Gallup reports that average team size rose from 10.9 direct reports in 2024 to 12.1 in 2025. Yet managers remain one of the biggest variables in whether new behaviors stick, with Gallup estimating they account for 70% of the variance in team engagement.
So don't give managers another program to administer.
Make the first 90 days part of the design
- Weeks 1–2: Translate the kickoff into 90-day commitments with clear owners and dates. Give leaders an executive synthesis they can use with their teams.
- Days 30–60: Bring managers together in peer groups of six to eight to compare what's working. Give them simple guides they can use in 1:1s and pipeline reviews.
- Day 90 and beyond: Connect the new behaviors to business-led check-ins and actual performance.
Make leaders accountable for what happens next
Leaders set the expectation, managers coach it, executives model it, and the organization measures it.
No platform substitutes for a manager asking about the behavior in a 1:1.
The test: 90 days out, can a participant remember the last time their manager asked about the behavior?
If they can't, kickoff probably didn't stick.
The opportunity is bigger
The best kickoffs don't just get everyone aligned on the year ahead. They create a shared understanding of what selling requires now, give people a chance to practice it, and make it easier to carry that behavior back into the work.
If you remember nothing else from this blog, I'll leave you with a simple but powerful question to take into the planning process for your next event:
When your sellers walk back into the field on Monday, what will they be able to do that they couldn't do before?
If you have a good answer, you're probably on the right track.

There’s a specific kind of strategy meeting getting scheduled right now, in nice hotels with bad coffee: the AI reset off-site.
And for good reason. In a 2026 WRITER survey, 48% of leaders described their AI rollout as, in their own words, a "massive disappointment." That's nearly half the room.
What that number really measures is the distance between what these tools can do and what people are doing with them. In our experience, that distance is almost entirely human.
Which is why the off-site is the right instinct. Making the most of that time is the harder part.
What separates an AI reset that actually changes the game from an expensive two-day conversation? In our experience, it comes down to avoiding four common design mistakes.
Mistake 1
Blaming the bots
The gap between AI investment and real adoption is almost always about people, not technology. And when adoption stalls, we usually find it's one of four things.
- They don't think it will help them
- Nobody around them is using it
- They don't feel capable
- Or they don't have real access to the tools they were promised
Four different problems, and four completely different fixes.
That's why diagnosis comes first. If you don't know which barrier you're dealing with, every intervention becomes an educated guess. And you cannot tell which one you have by staring at a dashboard. A belief gap and a skill gap look identical in a status report and need opposite interventions. Show up guessing, and you'll spend real money teaching people to use a tool they simply don't trust yet. Congratulations - you've just catered the wrong conversation.
Mistake 2
Letting leaders off the hook
One of the biggest predictors of whether change sticks is also one of the most overlooked: leadership.
If your executives show up as observers, nodding along and quietly answering email under the table, your people clock it in about four minutes.
That doesn't mean your CEO has to emcee the thing. It means they use the tools in front of everyone, participate in the conversation, and make it clear this isn't someone else's initiative.
Recently we’ve been working with a Fortune 200 global professional services firm who’s top 120 leaders were at very different points with AI. Some were redesigning entire processes. Others were using it to summarize emails, or not at all. Rather than focus on the technology, the four-hour session focused on what leaders could do with AI, applying it to a live strategic challenge and ending with a personal commitment to lead differently. The response was strong enough that the organization is now cascading the experience globally.
The lesson is simple: when leaders experience AI as a strategic capability, they're better equipped to model the behavior that makes adoption stick. Nothing you build during those two days survives without that entire chain of leadership doing its part.

Mistake 3
Chasing the wrong outcome
Without a behavioral baseline, you have no way to prove anything actually moved. No baseline, no ROI. You're just hoping the energy in the room was good, which is a wonderful feeling and a terrible metric to bring to your CFO.
But the baseline isn't just about proving the off-site worked. It's about understanding where you're starting in the first place. And you'll want that clarity, because the quiet resistance is real. In that same 2026 research, nearly a third of employees admitted to actively working around their company's AI strategy. If you don't win their belief in the room, some of them will keep politely ignoring the whole thing from their desks. You can't measure your way out of that. You have to earn your way out of it.
Which brings us to the biggest reframe of all.
Mistake 4
Leaving follow-through to chance
We've been working with a Fortune 100 medical device company on their AI strategy for three years. It started with their leadership team, a three-hour session built around what those leaders would do differently, and it landed. What became clear afterward was that the same experience needed to happen everywhere else. So, it expanded: 90-minute activations for 15,000 people, and this year intact teams redesigning their own workflows.
Three years in, that first session is the smallest part of the story.
Your event is where momentum gets created. What happens at 30, 60, and 90 days is where results get made.
If you're planning one of these and want to change what happens on Monday, not just how everyone feels on Friday, that the work we do.
We'd be glad to help you design it.

Candidates now arrive at interviews pre-coached by AI, with their resumes optimized to pass every checkpoint. Polish has stopped being a signal. The traditional hiring process was built to read exactly the cues that AI is now best at producing, and the signals hiring managers once relied on have weakened as a result. And for roles where the wrong hire carries real business consequences, losing the ability to tell who will actually perform is not a minor inconvenience. It is a material risk, and it exposes the business to unnecessary turnover, reduced performance, and heavier investment for talent growth and development.
So how do you observe the behaviors that matter most, before someone is in the role?
Not by asking better questions, but rather by putting candidates in situations designed to elicit that behavior.
The limits of predicting from paper
Credentials tell you what someone has done. Structured interviews tell you what someone says they would do. Neither lets you observe what they actually do in the moments that count.
This distinction matters most in client-facing, relationship-driven roles, where the performance gap between a strong hire and a weak one plays out in real business outcomes (revenue, retention, client growth). Organizations that hire at scale in these roles carry that gap across hundreds of decisions at a time.
The better approach is to watch candidates do the work before you hire them. Put them in simulated, role-relevant scenarios, and pair the simulation with a second, different kind of measure so no single method carries the whole decision. That combination is what lets you evaluate real performance before anyone is in the role. Organization-specific simulations provide a clear read on who is ready and capable of performing on day one. In a world of AI-supported candidate signals, the use of simulations makes the process harder to prep for. It is harder to fake. And, when designed well, it is substantially more predictive than other hiring methods.
What counts as evidence
Claims about predictive power are easy to make. Evidence for them is rarer than you would expect.
A predictive validity study, the kind that links pre-hire assessment scores to how someone actually performs once hired, is some of the hardest evidence to produce and the rarest to see. Many assessments are validated against proxies: another test, or a theoretical model of the role, rather than real results on the job. Connecting scores to concrete business outcomes and doing the statistical work to show the link holds, takes years of shared data and a level of commitment from both the assessment provider and the client that most partnerships never reach. That is precisely why it is worth asking for. A provider who can show how assessment scores track to training completion, retention, and first-year output is offering something categorically different from one who can only show a correlation with another test.
Why simulation holds up where other methods do not
When a candidate sits across from a trained assessor (someone playing the client or prospect on the other side of the conversation) and has to work through a real situation, they cannot rely on a rehearsed answer. The scenario is specific. The stakes feel real. What you see is close to what you would get on the job.
That is the value of simulation-based assessment: it does not test what candidates know about the role.
It shows how they use what they know when a real person is on the other side of the conversation, before the stakes are real.
For roles that carry significant business responsibility, this distinction is the whole game. The cost of the wrong hire in a high-stakes client-facing role is not just a missed quota for a quarter - It plays out in relationships that do not develop, clients who leave, and productivity losses that compound over time. Getting those hiring decisions right, at scale, with consistency, requires methods that are built for predictive accuracy, not just candidate experience or hiring speed.
What this means for how organizations think about hiring
Most organizations are still optimizing the wrong things in their hiring process. They invest heavily in employer branding, application flow, and interview structure, all of which matter, but less in the core question: does our hiring process actually predict who will succeed in this role?
AI has sharpened the stakes here. If every candidate can present as polished and prepared, screening based on presentation becomes less useful. What holds up is direct observation of the behaviors that the job requires.
A few principles worth building from:
- Measure what the job requires, not what is easy to measure. Cognitive tests and personality questionnaires have their place, but they do not look much like the job. The closer the assessment is to the actual work, the better it predicts performance in it.
- Ask what your assessment predicts. Training completion? Retention? First-year output? Most organizations cannot answer that question today, largely because providers have rarely been asked to prove it. It is a fair thing to ask for.
- Take the human element seriously. In a simulation, a candidate is having a real conversation, responding in real time, navigating a situation that requires judgment. Even with the help of AI, that is hard to game. And it remains one of the strongest predictors of on-the-job performance available.
The data exists to make hiring decisions more accurate, fairer, and more directly tied to business outcomes. For organizations operating in high-stakes roles at scale, there is too much on the line to rely on methods that cannot hold up to that standard.
You may be interested in BTS’ thought leadership in the five talent shifts AI is forcing now.
