Selling in a Recession

There’s good news, though. A downturn can be a time for marketers to shine, to improve cross-functional collaboration, and to build or strengthen their status as an advisor to the business. The key is to avoid some common mistakes and, even better, seize often-overlooked opportunities.

Do not panic or over-flex

Organizations frequently react to downturns by adding— rushing to pile on new strategies, initiatives, tasks. Teams end up overloaded with the new and lose sight of what was already working or not working. Resist the impulse to over-flex, and instead, calmly consider how to best use your resources:

• With your team, explore how you can be 20 percent better, rather than trying to be 80 percent different and better.
• Let go of anything that isn’t effective and recommit to campaigns and initiatives that get results. Set a manageable pace and streamline the workflow. Avoid throwing too much at your team, which only leads to confusion, frustration, and misalignment when you can afford it least.
• Deepen your understanding of the customer. Recessions hit every customer and every company differently. Customers might suddenly behave differently (e.g., from innovation interest to cost focus). Recognizing how each client is affected builds trust over the long term. Also, remember that many industries thrive during a downturn (think tech or pharmaceuticals and healthcare in 2020). Identify clients that are still doing well and intensify your marketing efforts to them.
• Increase alignment with other business units and the C-suite. Collaborate to link marketing’s efforts with the those of sales, enablement, product development, etc., coordinating with their business cycles and using data points to drive decisions and messaging.

Get back to the fundamentals

• Continue branding efforts.
• Reinforce your brand identity. Begin by reengaging employees in company culture, mindset, and brand, an identity they know and are proud to represent. In a downturn, organizations sometimes soften their messaging. That’s a mistake. This is a time to energize your organization around reinforcing your brand identity to customers and potential customers. It’s time to get louder.
• Shift your messaging but protect your authenticity. Marketers must revisit their messaging and make changes that resonate with their target customer, whose own circumstances have changed. The danger: overreacting and being inauthentic to their brand, latching on to the latest buzzwords or mimicking what other companies are doing. The creates confusion and lowers customer engagement. Be authentic and build your customers’ confidence in your brand as something they can trust, even in times of uncertainty.
• Watch your language. When a downturn forces budget cuts, every cost comes under greater scrutiny. Improve the language you use to demonstrate how your product or service is not an expense, but an investment, an investment your customers can’t afford to not make. Draw attention to the value they’re getting, not the transaction.
• Embrace sustainability as a brand advantage. In a recent survey, 91 percent of US CEOs said they were convinced a recession was on its way; 59 percent of those executives said they were preparing for a downturn by pausing or reconsidering environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives [i]. Research reveals this short-sighted tactic will likely backfire:“A review of company performance during the last recession also suggests that investments in sustainability can pay off during difficult times: between 2006 and 2010, the top 100 sustainable global companies experienced significantly higher mean sales growth, return on assets, profit before taxation, and cash flows from operations compared to control companies” [ii].

In a recession, marketers need to promote the importance of a strong sustainability strategy internally—and confidently tout that strategy externally.

• Revisit customer segmentation and the customer buying cycle.
• Identify those customers for whom what your organization provides is critical even in a downturn, or especially in a downturn. Increase your marketing efforts to those segments.
• Reexamine your customer’s buying cycle to understand what changes are happening during a downturn. This will allow you to make sure your marketing aligns with sales, enablement, and customer service—in sync with the buying process and focused on achieving results for the customer.
• Revamp your multi-channel and omni-channel marketing strategy. Even in the best of times, multi-channel marketing isn’t about playing in every channel. It’s about aligning to customers’ preferences. This becomes even more crucial in a sluggish economy. Prioritize the channels that either continue to bring in potential customers despite the downturn or that are best suited to reach those customer segments you’ve decided to direct your efforts toward during the downturn.

Focus on the long term

In a downturn, organizations understandably default to survival mode, anxious that today’s slowdown could be tomorrow’s crisis. However, research from the Great Recession confirms that companies thrive during a downturn when they don’t over-rotate on short-term tactics.

“There is also evidence of the benefits to maintaining a focus on the long term, even during a period of crisis: companies with a long-term orientation achieved higher annual growth and total shareholder return (TSR) than their counterparts during the previous recession” [iii].

For marketing leaders, this is the time to keep your eyes—and strategy—focused on the future. Use the downturn as a trigger to implement long-term initiatives and changes that will result in more data-driven, evidence-based, and efficient marketing.

While thriving during a recession is never easy, it doesn’t have to be complicated. By simply avoiding the temptation to over-flex and fixate on the short term and going back to the fundamentals, marketing can make a downturn their time to shine.

Sources

[i] KPMG 2022 U.S. CEO Outlook. Aug. 19, 2022. https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2022/08/kpmg-2022-ceo-outlook.html[ii], [iii] “Five Ways a Sustainability Strategy Provides Clarity During a Crisis,” by Thomas Singer. Harvard.edu, July 6, 2020.

The hardest sell is not the one you have to make, it’s the one your buyer has to make internally against other priorities andinitiatives.

As a seller, you can feel it coming. When recession looms, a company’s first impulse is to dramatically cut spending. But you can work the downturn to your advantage—helping buyers position your solution not as just another cost competing for space in a tightened budget, but as the key to thriving in hard times.

These four steps will enable you to make it easier for yourbuyers to buy.

1.       Improve your understanding of the situation‍

Take a macroeconomic view of how a downturn is affecting your customer’s business. Examine the trends moving against the company’s ability to purchase, in particular the implications of how these trends impact the budget areas where you sell today. Customers who were previously looking for 20 percent year-over-year growth are likely now aiming for something more conservative, or even hoping just to remain flat. Maintaining revenues and market position are more important than ever in a recession.

Even during market downturns, however, customers still have problems that need to be solved. Consider the decision levers influencing purchasing amid these macroeconomic trends by identifying high-level trends that customers need to focus on in a downturn. These will fall into at least some, and maybe all, of the following categories: technology, people, strategy, key initiatives, competitive landscape, and business performance. Examining the internal communication of your own company and any changes in how decisions are made mayalso give insight into what your customers are experiencing.

2.       Improve your understanding of the situation

Even your strongest business relationships can now look much different due to economic pressures. Most customers will be facing increased scrutiny on any purchasing decision, with new stakeholders involved in the buying process who require higher levels of justification. A longer sales cycle has wide effects on your ability to manage your pipeline and territory and forecast your year. In a downturn, sales fundamentals are more important than ever, so you need to take these three actions:

Evaluate your customers. Looking at your book of business, who are your most critical stakeholders? Taking the time to evaluate which relationships are essential to sustain and beginning to formulate a game plan will keep you focused.

Discover and align to changing goals. Particularly for your most essential customers, you will need to be intentional about understanding how the looming recession is affecting their business and their decision-making processes. Often a short-term strategy is put in place to maintain financial health throughout the downturn. As a good partner, you need to be able to align with the new success targets and be proactive in the process.

Uncover the new competition. A downturn can bring a source of competition you haven’t faced before: other initiatives inside of your customer’s company competing for the same budget dollars. With waning confidence in growth, C-suite leaders have little choice but to tightly monitor costs throughout the organization. Inevitably, this ratchets up the internal competition for funding as finance departments try to decide which initiatives are mission-critical and which could wait for better conditions.

Getting back to basics and spending the time to deeply understand how the external pressures are creating new internal processes for your customers can help you better position yourself throughout the downturn.

3.       Position yourself

Now that you fully understand the new strategy of your key accounts and any potential internal competition, you are ready to position yourself. While you may be tempted to look at shorter contracts or discounting, any amount of discounting can have long-term effects on your relationships and signal desperation. More than ever, it is critical that you create a value proposition for your customers. In addition, you must present a creative value proposition that is broad enough to appeal to the new stakeholders at the table. You may find yourself with C-suite executives involved in conversations that previously required lower-level sign off. Being able to confidently present your offering and think on your feet will be essential. Be sure to understand what value your offering brings to different areas of your customer’s organization and know what levers you have at your disposal to help a deal move along. Remember that just as your customers want to avoid any short-term missteps for their business, you must protect your business as well. Look for creative ways everyone can win.

4.       Identify new opportunities

Finally, you need to be more proactive and agile during this time. While maintaining major accounts and relationships is important, finding new areas of business may be even more important. You might have built a book of business around an industry that is widely affected by the downturn. Networking with your team and staying current on market conditions can you help you find marketplace shifts and lead you to new opportunities. Communicating with your sales and marketing leadership on what you see and hear in the field may help everyone uncover new applications, industries, and customers for your products.

There’s no denying that selling in a downturn presents a new set of challenges. But by leveraging empathy and insights into the internal and external forces impacting customers, you canpartner with your buyers to make a winning business case—even in a downturn.

How will your business survive amidst surging inflation and increased costs for energy and raw materials?

How will you ensure customers buy your products and services when they need to spend more on almost everything? Right now, these questions are top of mind for you and other business leaders. Unfortunately, most factors that contribute to inflation are out of your control. However, there are a few key strategies you can leverage to mitigate the consequences of inflation.

1. Rethink your value proposition

More than ever, a clear, targeted value proposition is mission critical. To reach customers in a time when they are hesitant to spend, you need to address their specific needs and desires, which requires having deep insights about them. Without this understanding, it’s impossible to highlight the value that your offering provides. To dig deeper, conduct customer focus sessions or interviews to understand what they value most and why. Leverage the following process to structure how you rethink your value proposition.

• Customer Understanding: Know your customer better than anyone else and appreciate the difference between customers.
• Customer Segmentation: Gain a solid understanding of the segmentation process. Segment your customers based on your customer understanding.
• Specific Value Proposition: Develop segment-specific offerings based on customer insights. Create segment-specific value propositions.

2. Redesign your pricing approach and strategy

Amidst high inflation, price is a sticking point for customers – but increases are often necessary for the longevity of your business.

When considering price increases, ask yourself, what do we want to achieve? Your pricing approach and strategy depend upon how much of a price increase you can afford. Do you want to gain market share with your premium brand? Do you need to defend against a private label? You must consider these questions when rethinking your pricing strategy because price increases should not jeopardize your overall strategy.

Regardless of which path you choose, use insights you’ve gathered about customers as you reevaluate. Your pricing should reflect the benefits of your offering.

Depending on your customers’ price sensitivity, their reaction will be different. Consider these factors when redesigning your pricing strategy:

• Customer’s income statement / financial status
• Customer’s willingness to pay
• Customer’s industry and product segments (necessities vs. luxury goods)
• Availability of alternative products and substitutability

However, your price increase shouldn’t be too moderate (< 2%). An increase needs to be worthwhile and secure your margin, so you don’t have to raise prices too often.

3. Communicate your price increase

Raising prices without a thoughtful communication strategy can backfire and harm your relationships with customers. Remember, your customers are also facing higher prices for almost all goods and services, so be sure sellers are equipped to approach the situation with care.

Create a compelling story that sellers can use to frame the price increase highlighting the value your customers will receive when purchasing your offering. What additional benefits will they receive at this new price? Why should they be willing to pay more?

As part of the story, sellers should only plan to mention the increase in input costs as a secondary factor. But, if higher input costs are the reason for the price increase, sellers should not be afraid to communicate this. Transparency counts.

Decades of psychological studies have proven that calling it what it is – a price increase – and avoiding euphemisms is important to customers. Sellers will often call it “price update” or “price adjustment” because they are afraid of customers’ reactions. However, customers value authenticity and honesty more than diluted messaging.

Another important factor is time. Since your customers might need some time to adapt to your increased prices, the earlier sellers communicate, the better.

In summary, before communicating the price increase to customers, be sure your sellers are prepared to do the following:

• Create a value-first storyline without neglecting external factors
• Avoid euphemisms and let customers know what they can expect
• Communicate in a timely manner

Whether you’re restating your value proposition or adjusting your prices, collecting feedback and insights from customers enables you to build trust and serve them better. This is especially critical during inflationary periods when price can be sensitive and communicating changes must be approached with consideration and care. However, putting in this additional work will be rewarded with steadfast customer loyalty even if price increases persist.

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Each business revolution has reshaped not only how businesses operate, but how they organize themselves and empower their people. From the industrial age to the information era, and now into the age of artificial intelligence, technology has always brought with it a reconfiguration of authority, capability, and judgment.

In the 19th century, industrialization centralized work and knowledge. The factory system required hierarchical structures where strategy, information, and decision-making were concentrated at the top. Managers at the apex made tradeoffs for the greater good of the enterprise because they were the only ones with access to the full picture.

Then came the information economy. With it came the distribution of information and a need for more agile, team-based structures. Cross-functional collaboration and customer proximity became competitive necessities. Organizations flattened, experimented with matrix models, and pushed decision-making closer to where problems were being solved. What had once been the purview of a select few, judgment, strategic tradeoffs, and insight became expected competencies for managers and team leads across the enterprise.

Now, AI is changing the game again. But this time, it’s not just about access to data. It’s about access to intelligence.

Generative AI democratizes access not only to information, but to intelligent output. That shifts the burden for humans from producing insights to evaluating them. Judgment, which was long the domain of a few executives, must now become a baseline competency for the many across the organization.

But here’s the paradox: while AI extends our capacity for intelligence, discernment, the human ability to weigh context, values, and consequence, is still best left in the hands of human leaders. As organizations begin to automate early-career work, they may inadvertently erase the very pathways and opportunities by which judgment was built.

Why judgment matters more than ever

Deloitte’s 2023 Human Capital Trends survey found that 85% of leaders believe independent decision-making is more important than ever, but only 26% say they’re ready to support it. That shortfall threatens to neutralize the very productivity gains AI promises.

If employees can’t question, challenge, or contextualize AI’s output, then intelligent tools become dangerous shortcuts. The organization stalls, not from a lack of answers, but from a lack of sense-making.

What organizations must do

To stay competitive, organizations must shift from simply adopting AI to designing AI-aware ways of working:

• Build new learning paths for judgment development. As AI replaces easily systematized tasks, companies must replace lost learning experiences with mentorship, simulations, and intentional development planning.

• Design workflows that require human input. Treat AI as a co-pilot, not an autopilot. Embed review checkpoints and tradeoff discussions. Just as innovation processes have stage gates, so should AI analyses.

• Make judgment measurable. Assess and develop decision-making under ambiguity from entry-level roles onward. Research shows the best learning strategy for this is high-fidelity simulations.

• Start earlier. Leadership development must begin far earlier in career paths, because judgment, not just knowledge, is the new differentiator.

What’s emerging is not just a flatter hierarchy, but a more distributed sense of judgment responsibility. To thrive, organizations must prepare their people not to outthink AI, but to out-judge it.

P R E S S R E L E A S E
Stockholm, May 5, 2025

STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN – BTS Group AB (publ), a leading global consultancy specializing in strategy execution, change, and people development, has agreed to acquire Nexo Pesquisa e Consultoria Ltda., Nexo, a boutique consulting firm headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Nexo has been growing continuously since it was founded in 2017. With revenues of approximately 12 million Brazilian Reales (approx. 2.1 million USD) in 2024, and a highly capable team of 21 members, Nexo has built a strong reputation for delivering transformative projects in strategy, innovation, leadership, and culture.

Nexo collaborates with a great portfolio of clients across sectors such as financial services, consumer goods, and technology, assisting both local and global companies in navigating uncertainty, unlocking creativity, and activating strategy through people. Their work encompasses culture transformation, leadership development, employer value proposition, innovation culture, and vision alignment – supported by proprietary methodologies and frameworks.

BTS currently operates in Brazil servicing both local and multinational clients with a team of 13 employees. By acquiring Nexo, BTS not only increases the Group’s footprint in Brazil but also adds significant capabilities in culture and transformation services. Nexo’s client base has limited overlap with BTS, creating strong growth potential and synergy opportunities.

“Nexo is known for helping leaders and organizations tackle some of the most complex, human-centered challenges with creativity, empathy, and strategic clarity and the Nexo team is loved by their clients,” says Philios Andreou, Deputy CEO of BTS Group and President of the Other Markets Unit. “Their products and services complement and elevate our existing offerings, especially in culture transformation, and we are thrilled to welcome the Nexo team to BTS.”

“We’re excited to join BTS. We’ve long admired BTS’s approach and unique portfolio to support large organizations and leaders in connecting strategy with culture across the organization,” says Andreas Auerbach, co founder of Nexo. “Becoming part of BTS, allows us to scale our impact and bring more value to our clients while staying true to our values and culture,” adds Mariana Lage Andrade, co-founder of Nexo.

Upon completion of the transaction, Nexo’s business and organization will merge with BTS Brazil. Nexo’s founders will assume senior management roles in the joint operation.

The acquisition includes a limited initial cash consideration. Additional purchase price considerations will be paid between 2026 and 2028, provided Nexo meets specific performance targets. A limited portion of any such additional purchase price considerations will be paid in newly issued BTS shares. The transaction is effective immediately.

BTS’s acquisition strategy continues to focus on broadening our service portfolio, expanding our geographic reach, and enhancing our capabilities to support future organic growth in a fragmented market.

For more information, please contact:
Philios Andreou
Deputy CEO
BTS Group AB
philios.andreou@bts.com

Michael Wallin
Head of investor relations
BTS Group AB
michael.wallin@bts.com
+46-8-587 070 02
+46-708-78 80 19

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Work today is too complex for individuals to succeed in isolation. Almost every critical decision, innovation, or transformation depends on teams working effectively together. Leaders rely on their teams to deliver results. Teams, in turn, rely on their leaders to create the conditions where performance is possible. This exchange, what leaders need from their teams, and what teams need from their leaders, sits at the heart of what we call teaming.

When teaming is strong, leaders get what they need from their teams [creativity, resilience, execution] and teams get what they need from leaders [direction, support, and the conditions to thrive]. It’s how strategy becomes action, how uncertainty becomes opportunity, and how businesses stay competitive in a fast-changing world.